consumer as a group has been bruised, but otherwise alive and well. Other data has been more positive including the low unemployment rate and latest retail sales. It's also encouraging that the quarter-over-quarter decline narrowed compared to the Q1 trend. What's more positive is the real growth on a 2- and 3-year stacked basis from pre-pandemic levels. The result left both a tough comparison base and added a layer of volatility beyond the headline-making supply chain disruptions and geopolitical issues that defined the quarter. From a macro perspective, the scenario we see playing out is the soft landing.īriefly, our take on the 0.9% decline in the Q2 GDP is to keep in mind that the economy was historically strong in 2021, growing by a massive 5.7%, in part fueled by the record stimulus last year. The bigger point here is that Q2 is history with an understanding that stocks are forward-looking. That being said, the overall economy appears relatively stable or resilient with room to emerge out of this rough patch. Inflation has been hot, interest rates are higher, and the latest Q2 GDP data confirmed a technical recession. The momentum in stocks right now is real and our message here is that we expect more upside. The news flash is that the doom-and-gloomers with apocalyptic calls for a depression-style crash may end up being wrong. What we're seeing is a shifting narrative where the major macro headwinds from the first half of the year are being left behind with stocks starting to price in improving conditions. The market action has turned decisively bullish with the S&P 500 ( NYSEARCA: SPY) up over 13% from its June cycle low.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |